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Dr Patrick Carvalho

Research Fellow

Dr Patrick Carvalho is a Research Fellow at The New Zealand Initiative, with extensive international experience in public policy across academia, public organisations and private sector.

Prior to immigrating to New Zealand, Dr Carvalho worked as the Head of the Economic Studies Division at the Federation of Industries of Rio de Janeiro, producing research on fiscal and monetary matters, and as a Research Fellow at The Centre for Independent Studies in Sydney, where he focused on industrial relations and competition policy. More recently, Dr Carvalho was a Director at a Washington, D.C.-based consultancy advising the U.S. Federal Administration on the challenges of demographic shifts to economic prosperity.

Dr Carvalho has Bachelor of Law degree from Rio de Janeiro’s State University, a Master’s in political science from the University of Wollongong, and a PhD in economics from the Australian National University, where he also worked as a lecturer in macroeconomic policy.

Phone: 04 494 9101


Recent Work

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Fighting the whack-a-mole online battle

Last week, a group of 17 countries along with leading social media platforms signed Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Christchurch Call “to eliminate terrorist and violent extremist content online”.The non-binding three-page document is inspiringly pragmatic, combining aspirational actions without falling for heavy-handed (and misguided) regulations.Kudos to the international initiative. There is indeed much to celebrate about such a concerted effort against the spread of online radicalism.But we must not lose sight of the implementation hurdles ahead – and keep working for... Read more

Dr Patrick Carvalho
Insights Newsletter
24 May, 2019

Free is expensive

Readers of The New Zealand Herald should welcome its recent introduction of a $5-weekly subscription to access premium content. So should non-readers. If successful, New Zealand will benefit from an additional stream of high-quality journalism worth paying for. As the global spread of media paywalls attests, informative and accurate online news is hard to produce solely via advertisement sales. (For one, robust analyses on politics, economics, and current affairs are not as “clickable” as homemade cat videos and tabloid stories.)... Read more

Dr Patrick Carvalho
Insights Newsletter
10 May, 2019

Pricing our way out

This year’s close alignment of Easter and Anzac public holidays translated into 10 days of joy, family time and… congestion – with the New Zealand Traffic Agency (NZTA) issuing multiple heavy traffic warnings across the nation. Unfortunately, traffic jams are not restricted to holiday seasons in New Zealand. Widespread congestion in our urban centres is the new normal all year round, clogging “the lifeblood of community and commerce”. Read more

Dr Patrick Carvalho
Insights Newsletter
26 April, 2019
Time deadline2

Schrodinger’s Brexit soap opera

Saturday morning, reading the news, sipping the first coffee of the day in my sunlit balcony: Life is good and simple. Until I remembered my promise to take my daughter shopping for a new unicorn doll that morning. – “Let’s go, daddy!” – “Yes, sweetheart. We are leaving. Just hold on a bit,” I said, trying to buy some time. – “Dad, stop Brexiting. Let’s just get out already!” All right. Read more

Dr Patrick Carvalho
Insights Newsletter
12 April, 2019
Ice cream

Death and taxes… and other family matters

Benjamin Franklyn is famously credited with writing “in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes”.That may be true, but a cynic might retort that at least death does not get worse every time governments look for extra funding.So it was with trepidation that I read the Tax Working Group’s recently released Future of Tax report.As I chewed through the 200-plus pages of the report, I muttered to myself: “What future?!”. Read more

Dr Patrick Carvalho
Insights Newsletter
8 March, 2019

A missed opportunity on productivity

The jury is out for the released Tax Working Group’s “Future of Tax” Report, with the government promising to deliver its verdict in April.Unfortunately, a careful reading of the 200-page document already shows a missed opportunity to address New Zealand’s biggest elephant in the room: slow productivity growth.Worse, the document’s main recommendation of taxing capital gains will do little – if not work against – to fix our low capital stock levels that drive the productivity problem.To be fair, the... Read more

Dr Patrick Carvalho
Insights Newsletter
1 March, 2019
Housing money3

Much pain and little gain of a broad CGT

The Tax Working Group released this week its much-anticipated “Future of Tax” report, which recommends introducing a broad-based taxation of capital gains at full income rates. As proposed, the 33% headline rate would be one of the highest among industrialised economies. And given New Zealand’s recognisably low income tax thresholds by international standards, a new CGT would disproportionally hit middle-income earners already struggling to invest for retirement. Read more

Dr Patrick Carvalho
Insights Newsletter
22 February, 2019

Patrick Carvalho discusses CGT

The Tax Working Group’s report proposes a broad-based top rate of 33% capital gains tax (CGT). Patrick Carvalho explains to Larry Williams on Newstalk ZB why fully taxing capital gains would likely have undesirable effects on productivity, investment and growth, and impose significant compliance costs. Read more

Dr Patrick Carvalho
Larry Williams Drive - Newstalk ZB
21 February, 2019

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